Japan  Germany & MENA  Global Energy

18 March 2011

Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately.

The markets opened up this week up as the market took stock of the situation in Japan. The situation was further compounded on Tuesday when Germany’s Chancellor Merkell announced that it was to revoke previous (controversial) legislation that had allowed for lifetime extensions of its nuclear fleet. The result was that 7 of its oldest reactors were taken offline immediately pending further assessments. The combination of news caused bullish gains across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the likely impact on gas, LNG & coal alike. Only the oil markets recorded losses pressured by an anticipated fall in demand in Japan as a consequence of the earthquake. Relative calm was restored towards the end of the week and even oil markets rebounded as market focus switched to Middle East and Japan’s fuel demands. With such a changing and unexpected turn of events it seems it has taken a few days for the markets to assess what the likely impacts are going to be. The likely increase in demand for LNG continues to dominate play. The loss of nuclear in Germany will also have an impact (gas prices have spiked in Germany though many feel this is an overreaction on longer dated contracts driven by fear) especially when considering Germany is a net exporter of power and could feasible plug its generation shortfall by turning down its exports. Carbon prices have responded reaching their highest level since 2009. Meanwhile Middle East and North African (MENA) politics is likely to come into play again. Libya’s government has just announced a ceasefire just hours after the UN Security Council resolution backed no fly zone.


Carbon  Nuclear  Bull Market  Oil 

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