November 2011 Review

02 December 2011

While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive.

While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive. Greece was still in the spotlight at the start of November with talks of a possible referendum throwing the possible eurozone bailout deal into disarray creating volatile markets. Revived Eurozone debt concerns pummelled equities, the euro, copper, coal, energy and oil prices. The crisis further deepened as Italy was drawn into the boiling pot with the lending rates available to Italy climbing above 7%, the level at which Portugal and Ireland called out for help. New leaders were announced for both these countries but the change of leadership did little to change the economics. Fears of another recession were supported by evidence of contracting industrial output in the eurozone and bearish sentiment took hold. Around the same time the mild temperatures were dragging down prompt fuel contracts which fed through to the rest of the curve. This lack of demand led to unusually high storage levels causing risk premiums in near gas contracts to be eroded with seasonal contracts in turn feeling this weakness as well as worsening economic data. It was also reported that traders in the UK energy markets were and are placing a bet that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial carbon floor price. It seems there is a real fear that the Carbon Floor price, which when announced last Spring added over £4.00MWh to the Summer 13 contract, could force energy intensive businesses to move abroad given the economic climate.


EU  Bear Market  Finance 

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