Latest Figures Show the extent of Oil Shortfall

15 April 2011

Despite increased OPEC production, output fell short of pre-Libya crisis levels. With little sign of a resolution in Libya, oil supply remains under pressure and with OPEC yet to cover the shortfall it seems that strong oil prices are here to stay (well for a while anyway).

Analyst reports and surveys this week again strengthened the view though that high oil prices are here for the medium term. A Platts Survey showed that OPEC oil production plunged to 630,000 barrels day in March. While member states did increase production, it was insufficient to cover the 930,000b/day loss from Libya. And with Libyan crude the highest quality in the world, it is not as simple as a 1 barrel:1 barrel replacement ratio. With supply a continuing concern, Bank of America Merrill Lynch looked at energy intensity ratios pointing out that high oil prices are unlikely to be a temporary phenomenon given the difficulty of substituting oil with other forms of fuel. Demand will have to be affected but at what price: there is a low price elasticity of demand for oil.


Oil 

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