
The gas market is increasingly difficult to trade with many stating that the market is too high ( a fact that is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to UK shores). Estimates suggest that 70-80 mcm of LNG will arrive in the next 3 months, that’s the equivalent of opening another Langeled pipeline operating at close to full flow or just under a third of UK daily demand. Price of course is the driving factor with the UK gas market now the highest traded gas price in Q4 in the world. This anomaly has occurred due to the over supply of gas to the US and their storage system is close to full and so their prices are at record lows. Traders are forecasting that that market will fall, they highlight storage, inflation and oil, but in turn are fearful of selling it down. This cannot last for too long and perhaps art the start of October when the forward premium for Winter 09 has been eroded, the front end of the curve will collapse and bring the rest of the curve with it.
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