What constitutes real demand is a question increasingly being asked, not least because it is viewed as a key indicator to signal the start of economic recovery. However a rise in demand may not necessarily mean a lift to the economy.
Rumours continue that we in an economic recovery and that “demand” is picking up. However, you need to be careful when using demand as a recovery indicator. Demand is forecast to rise and increases seen are not over and above anticipated rises. Real evidence from customers and suppliers also suggests that they are yet to see a pick up in demand. Forecasts for last winter had year on year demand down by 15% in gas and power (and this would in fact have been higher has the previous winter not been as mild. If we have a colder winter this year (not forecast) then of course fuel demand will be up but this will be temperature led not economy led. There is not doubt there some manufacturing is returning but it is possible that production levels will be maintained and stock levels diminished (for the first time in many years). In reality, the supposed increase in energy demand does not seem to have materialised.
22 December 2005
Very quiet as opportunities are thin on the ground. Time reflect on 2005 as a volatile year and hope that 2006 brings more liquidity to the UK power market. read more...
03 October 2005
Prompt perhaps shows how the market may respond to a small increase in temperature, with its reaction to french strikers. read more...
28 September 2005
Weather is difficult to predict long term but in the short term it is the key fundamental driver on price, and this is why prompt prices for next week have risen. read more...
02 August 2005
The power market sags under the weight of its fundamental friends. Steel industry points to unfair advatages in Europe. read more...
23 June 2005
The differences between Winter and Summer are getting narrower, but this may indirectly cause more problems. If the Swiss trains stop what next? read more...
The Energy Efficient Clock Change
A wet and cold week in store for most but clock change is likely to help absorb some of the impact of energy use - but could the clock do more? read more...
29 March 2010
A wet and cold week in store for most but clock change is likely to help absorb some of the impact of energy use - but could the clock do more? read more...
Natural Gas the one to watch
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
08 March 2010
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
Gas Imports Keep the System Balanced
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
08 January 2010
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
Gas Balancing Alert Issued
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
05 January 2010
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
Winter is Coming - or is it?
With the 'balmy' temperatures enjoyed over November , it's hard to believe that tomorrow officially marks the start of winter according to the Met Office - but what can we expect? read more...
30 November 2009
With the 'balmy' temperatures enjoyed over November , it's hard to believe that tomorrow officially marks the start of winter according to the Met Office - but what can we expect? read more...
2nd Quarter Growth at 1.1%; What Role For Energy
Preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests the UK economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, up from the previous quarter's 0.3%. While the figures are preliminary (and based on around 40% of the ultimate data), what they do show is that construction, a relatively small part of the economy, contributed significantly to this growth figure. With 6 out of 10 civil engineering firms looking to the energy and water sectors for their income streams, it seems energy has a role to play in underpinning the recovery. read more...
23 July 2010
Preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests the UK economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, up from the previous quarter's 0.3%. While the figures are preliminary (and based on around 40% of the ultimate data), what they do show is that construction, a relatively small part of the economy, contributed significantly to this growth figure. With 6 out of 10 civil engineering firms looking to the energy and water sectors for their income streams, it seems energy has a role to play in underpinning the recovery. read more...
Green Investment Bank still a Concept
Leading figures from across industry warned that the need for new tools to finance future investment in infrastructure are necessary to secure Britain's growth as a low carbon economy. While the coalitions Green Investment Bank (GIB) is supported, it is important to recognise that it is still at present only a concept. read more...
16 July 2010
Leading figures from across industry warned that the need for new tools to finance future investment in infrastructure are necessary to secure Britain's growth as a low carbon economy. While the coalitions Green Investment Bank (GIB) is supported, it is important to recognise that it is still at present only a concept. read more...
Suddenly it's "British Petroleum"
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
02 June 2010
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
A Week for Releasing Figures
With the political debate heating up; more 'head to heads' scheduled and with the News Channels pouring over polls, polls of polls and more polls - then the economic figures coming out this week are surely going to add a lot more ingredients to the boiling pot. read more...
20 April 2010
With the political debate heating up; more 'head to heads' scheduled and with the News Channels pouring over polls, polls of polls and more polls - then the economic figures coming out this week are surely going to add a lot more ingredients to the boiling pot. read more...
UK Manufacturing slides further
Corus announce plans to mothball most of its Teeside Cast Products steelmaking site - resulting in a loss of over 1,700 jobs and slate the UK Government at the same time for its lack of support. read more...
07 December 2009
Corus announce plans to mothball most of its Teeside Cast Products steelmaking site - resulting in a loss of over 1,700 jobs and slate the UK Government at the same time for its lack of support. read more...
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