Where's the certainty

23 December 2009

There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack!

For years, decades even - the pattern has been the same - nuclear runs first and then coal baseload followed by gas and then oil on the margin. This was the economic generation stack which reflected the generators earnings or spread (the difference between the power price and the fuel input price). 2009 has however seen an interesting reversal with gas plant increasingly running on a baseload basis and coal plant coming on line after gas. This is because although commodity prices have been eroded over the year, erosion of the gas price has been greater (a fall of around 33% in the S10 contract from July to December 09) than the erosion seen in the coal price (a fall of 5%). The net result is that the relative achievable clean dark and spark spreads have reversed with gas plant now achieving around a £6.00MWh premium on the clean dark spread. The reason lies partly with a healthy gas supply situation as well as global demand factors for coal. The situation doesn't appear to be a temporary blip either with the reversal set to continue into the new year.


Gas  Coal  Spread 

Related Articles
100 % Spark spread of interest  

24 October 2006


Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be.  read more...

100 % A tale of the forward dark spread.  

16 October 2006


Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down.  read more...

100 % Dark and Spark spread influencing the future  

04 May 2006


Dark and spark spread prices are causing some concern, as they are not fundamentally changing the way the world looks at fuel for producing power.  read more...

100 % The fundamentals of Summer 06  

30 January 2006


Spark and dark spreads show that the need for gas during the Summer is low, so we should see a hike in spark spread and a fall in gas prices, but it doesn't always work like that.  read more...

100 % Emissions Demand and Supply  

17 June 2005


"'Curiouser and curiouser,' cried Alice!" Alice and Wonderland  read more...


other articles on Gas
Shale Gas - Latest UK estimates suggest enough for next 11 years  

22 September 2011


Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least.  read more...

Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground  

10 June 2011


Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm.  read more...

Downward Trend Still in Play  

13 May 2011


Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm.  read more...

Winter 11 - A Slippery Slope  

06 May 2011


While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example.  read more...

The Market in April 2011  

28 April 2011


In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way.  read more...


other articles on Coal
Winter 11 - A Slippery Slope  

06 May 2011


While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example.  read more...

Dong buy Severn Power  

10 March 2009


The Danish energy utility, Dong have bought one part of Carron Energy.  read more...

Green Light for additional 3.92GW of Capacity  

06 February 2009


The development of 3.92GW of power plant capacity was given the green light yesterday by the Department for Energy & Climate Change.  read more...

A sliding Prompt  

14 November 2008


A comfortable system in terms of supply margins left the prompt power market sliding.  read more...

Cashing in on the Power Price Highs  

29 August 2008


A number of coal-fired power stations, that opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD), appear to have exceeded operating expectations to take advantage of high summer power prices  read more...


other articles on Spread
February Monthly Round Up  

25 February 2011


February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves.  read more...

Where has the market got left to go?  

03 September 2010


Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels.  read more...

Drax up against it  

05 March 2008


Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder.  read more...

Teeside sold  

27 February 2008


Teeside sold to Suez and GdF.  read more...

Prompt and Curve diverge  

19 February 2008


Could the change in price be a trading signal.  read more...


Energy News by Date
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
december november october september august july jun may april march february january
RSS Feed
Keep up to date on energy trading news.
Click here to subscribe
RSS
Day Ahead Electricity Prices

1y  6m  3m  1m
Powerisk Online
Powerisk Online tools and services.
Click here to login
Glossary
Glossary
Powerisk glossary of power terminology.
Click here for glossary
Glossary