Out with the Old  In with the New

31 December 2009

During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store?

2009 was a year that recorded steady price decline driven by demand reduction combined with healthy supplies generated by the high prices of 2008. But what of 2010? Will we see more of the same or has the market reached equilibrium? 2010 was to be a year of increased generating capacity - new plants, government support for nuclear and so on. However the economic situation suggests that the finance is just not there especially when demand is low. Market fundamentals are also changing. 2009 saw Gas plant running as Baseload with coal plant seen on the margin - this was as a result of the greater erosion of the gas price then was seen in the coal market. Traders believe that this reversal will continue into 2010. In addition, while our gas and power prices have traditionally been influenced not only by our own domestic situation but also Europe (given our literal connections via both gas and power interconnector),with the UK increasingly more reliant on LNG supplies, we must now also consider the US market as LNG prices are linked to the US gas price and in turn oil. So in 2010, what we can be certain of is that we can't be certain of anything!


Gas  Generation  Forward Curve 

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