With a market in contango it is easy for the power companies to give the impression that years 2 and 3 look more expensive, this is because they are! However, Powerisk has a fundamental view that Power prices look cheap. History shows that that when day ahead prices hit lows in the summer of 2005 and 2007, forward prices collapsed close to what we might term a fundamental low, i.e. £25-£30 for Summer and £35 -£45 for Winter. If we take into account inflation, and strip out carbon numbers, the prices are quite consistent across years. We are currently now at a period where day ahead prices are trading at new lows and again Winter 09 and Summer 10 are close to what we would deem the fundamental low. There is still a premium associated with these seasons but in reality it is reasonably small. History has also taught us that generally at the start of Winter there is a tightening and increase in prompt prices which starts a bull run on the curve. It can take as long as 18 months for the curve to fall back to the current levels. Powerisk believes that the curve is likely to rise in the future with Power companies struggling to make reasonable returns at these levels and many refusing to quote certain customers; the industry is in for a sea change. The growth of wind is putting further pressure on NGC and imbalancing, and it is therefore likely that next year will see increases in the curve. So the view still remains that customers may not pick the bottom of the market but the downside is far greater than the upside.