Government Intervention and Stagflation

10 June 2008

The markets are looking at whether a government could intervene with the markets but there is a real danger this could exacerbate the possibility of stagflation.

Some retail customers have asked whether the government is likely to challenge the market and enact a force majeure type of arrangement and force utilities to cut prices. In truth the government is more worried about the elderly grannies dying in the homes, than big business. There are more votes in elderly grannies. Perhaps more importantly a move to manipulate markets sends a signal which is not often a good one, the intimation is that there is a cap in price which is subsidised by the government. The government cannot afford to compensate big business over utility costs and hence the reason they remain quiet.

Unfortunately the side effect to this is inflation as players increase prices to offset production costs. The government increases interest rates to curb inflation and which stops economic growth. This phenomena is known as stagflation, (normally led by high oil prices) when economic growth declines and inflation increases.

This cycle is almost impossible to stop without a fall in oil prices.


UK Government  Regulation  Oil  Industry 

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