Why volume risk is greater than one thinks

21 March 2007

Volume to the supplier is important but little changes in volume can soon mount up and so players must be careful when they have a growing portfolio.

Most retail contracts are designed in such a way that the supplier is responsible for volume risk. The reason for this is that the way in which to manage volume risk is to have a large portfolio of customers. The general trends in weather can be the biggest swing constant associated with volume. In other words if a small factory or hotel closes or opens the supplier can offset these costs against the natural swing of a 35TWh portfolio made up of domestic customers and small industrials.

So on the premise that the supplier manages this in a portfoilio would it not be easiest to add new sites onto an existing contract at the same rates previously struck. Arguably as it is likely to be lost in the noise, it is a small win for the supplier and a big win for the customer. The danger with this approach is that the supplier stops valuing the option associated with new volume coming in. This means that they start giving more and more away free, shareholders do not like this and so suppliers are careful about just losing things in the noise.


Supply  Risk Management  shape 

Related Articles
67 % Drax structure the perfect deal with Centrica  

12 April 2006


Drax and Centrica do deal which on the face of it looks like a perfect hedge for Drax, but Centrica benefit from not being short power in a potentially high power market.  read more...

67 % 5th Small supplier goes bust and blames the lack of upstream assets  

07 February 2006


Zest 4 folds to join illustrious list, and they have no one to blame but themselves. Good risk management applies to all companies whatever size you are.  read more...

67 % Rising Market = Long Term Deals  

27 June 2005


"The most valuable commodity I know of is information." Wall Street  read more...

67 % Is your custom that important?  

24 June 2005


The more customers a supplier has in a rising market the more exposure to power price they have, this may not always be welcome when the buying forward is so expensive.  read more...

67 % Is seasonality dead  

23 June 2005


The differences between Winter and Summer are getting narrower, but this may indirectly cause more problems. If the Swiss trains stop what next?  read more...


other articles on Supply
October -What to Expect  

03 October 2011


October is a month to identify some good value purchasing opportunities. History suggests we will see prices slip through the month before the real winter drivers kick in.  read more...

Shale Gas - Latest UK estimates suggest enough for next 11 years  

22 September 2011


Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least.  read more...

Gas Imports Keep the System Balanced  

08 January 2010


Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading.  read more...

Gas Balancing Alert Issued  

05 January 2010


National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs?  read more...

EdF enters the world of competition..  

05 November 2009


EdF has capitalised on competitive energy markets across Europe, not least in the UK, while at the same time enjoying a dominant, competition free, environment at home in France. It looks as though the EC has finally caught up with them...  read more...


other articles on Risk Management
Powerisk Receives-Independent Energy Consultant Commendation  

29 November 2010


At the recent Energy ‘Buying and Supplying’ Excellence Awards, Powerisk received a Commendation in the Independent Energy Consultant of the Year category. The awards, held at The Langham Hotel in London, were designed to showcase and recognise the very best practises in the energy supply and procurement arena with consideration given to all those involved in the process.  read more...

New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management  

11 November 2010


Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks?  read more...

Suddenly it's "British Petroleum"  

02 June 2010


A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself?  read more...

Why is the Dollar Important?  

25 September 2009


With LNG now having a place in the UK gas market, the dollar will influence our energy prices.  read more...

Recent oil price rises will not last  

25 March 2009


The recent oil price increase seen last week has already started to fall and Powerisk explains why it will continue to stall.  read more...


other articles on shape
Too Many Buyers….  

08 October 2008


Too many buyers and not enough sellers were the reasons attributed to significant gains seen in the power markets.  read more...

Peak vs Baseload  

18 June 2007


Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing.  read more...

Backwardation and contango  

20 April 2007


The curve is changing shape this could be a short term thing as players tend to forget the back of the curve as it is less liquid but more often than not it is a fundamental shift in the market next week will tell.  read more...

The Nightmare Scenario  

01 March 2006


The market balloons in price, profiling is abandoned, and Mrs Jones at 33 Wavertree Mansions is seen showering at 3am in the morning. Unlikely, but it is happening in the water industry.  read more...

Does shape matter?  

27 February 2006


Under the NETA rules the market would always favour those who are flexible and able to adapt. As stability in market prices is becoming more normal, this allows players to assess the market even start to think about creating flexibility within their own shape.  read more...


Energy News by Date
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
december november october september august july jun may april march february january
RSS Feed
Keep up to date on energy trading news.
Click here to subscribe
RSS
Day Ahead Electricity Prices

1y  6m  3m  1m
Powerisk Online
Powerisk Online tools and services.
Click here to login
Glossary
Glossary
Powerisk glossary of power terminology.
Click here for glossary
Glossary