The market for weather related deals is growing but how good is our handle on this sort of stuff.
Some have argued that for budgeting purposes, and for forecasting instead of taking an average of past consumption that you start to apply a weather factor if you have data associated with heating and cooling degree days by modelling the way in which the weather works you can assess the consumption patterns for the future.
Most of the large utilities have demand forecasters, for the simple reason that if you are in imbalance it costs you and so it is always easy to know how much you produce, but less easy to get accurate demand figures. The biggest influence on demand is weather and so most players are looking to try and find the solution to what the weather does. Given that many of us are now embracing the carbon world and looking at long term weather patterns, and given that many of us are still not sure if it is solar radiation which has caused global warming and not carbon dioxide, we could be in for a long debate.
10 October 2005
Winters fall as Summers stay still. Traders see the scaremongering and look at the raw facts. Buy the rumour; sell the fact. read more...
07 October 2005
E.On outline to the government the scenario of how things might turn out if it gets seriously dry and hot. read more...
01 September 2005
Beware of the impact of increasing freight prices on the back of Katrina. read more...
24 August 2005
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
28 July 2005
Bullish sentiment returns, with fundamentals up across the scope. read more...
CRC- What Price?
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
03 February 2012
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Japan, Germany & MENA -Global Energy
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
18 March 2011
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
Capacity Payments Discussed as a Tool to encourage Investment
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
30 June 2010
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
Coal, Gas & Carbon all help to hold WInter Down
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
28 April 2008
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
Monthly Review - Jan 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
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