The market continues to rise carefully, but perhaps most interestingly their are significant differences in quarters which may be of interest to some.
The market picked up marginally this morning as players looked at long term weather forecasts. The prompt remained steady on the back of both a Drax and Longannet units coming off for outage.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the market is the continuing widening of the spread between Q4 and Q1 of next year currently at £32 and £38.50 respectively. If we assume that the curve has a relatively smooth incline, then the disjointedness between these quarters is something to watch carefully.
Much of the decline in Q4 is that it is pegged to Summer 07 and to some extent the Q1 is pegged to the Summer 08 but the main reason is the cost of emissions which rise from €1 to €15 in the space of a quarter, on this basis some might argue that Q1 looks cheap.
20 March 2007
Breaking the constuent parts of seasons is never easy but close fundamental inspection suggests that Winter 07 looks over priced. read more...
01 September 2005
Beware of the impact of increasing freight prices on the back of Katrina. read more...
24 August 2005
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
28 July 2005
Bullish sentiment returns, with fundamentals up across the scope. read more...
27 May 2005
Prompt no longer the driving force, as the curve diverges. read more...
CRC- What Price?
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
03 February 2012
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Japan, Germany & MENA -Global Energy
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
18 March 2011
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
Capacity Payments Discussed as a Tool to encourage Investment
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
30 June 2010
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
Coal, Gas & Carbon all help to hold WInter Down
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
28 April 2008
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Crude Oil Breaks Through $110bbl
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
04 March 2011
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
11 November 2010
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
Monthly Review - Jan 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
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