Pressure from forward sellers could see the buyers run to the hills.
Arguably Summer is not here yet and so July prices set at £27.60 is possibly a justifiable premium to be paid for the unknown. But it is also £7 higher than where the current day ahead is trading and any Monday morning spike is being quickly off set by low weekend prices. So this premia is relfective of what traders perceive. Two weeks ago traders had this numbers at £31.40 (an £11 premia) and so more traders now believe that prices on a forward basis are being over-hyped.
Perhaps this is something which could cause some interesting changes, most notably in a possibly price slide as seen at the tale end of last week. If the weather remains mild and June is not hot (unlike last year) then we could see further selling and this will help the forward curve slip further.
24 August 2005
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
27 May 2005
Prompt no longer the driving force, as the curve diverges. read more...
28 February 2005
Normal trading resumed, with a fall off to reflect supply margins read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
November 2011 Review
While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive. read more...
02 December 2011
While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive. read more...
Plunging Prices Impact UK Energy market
Oil markets were described as 'plunging' as fears escalated over the Greek debt crisis. With the dollar/euro exchange rates under pressure oil lost value pulling down NBP gas and UK power prices too. read more...
17 June 2011
Oil markets were described as 'plunging' as fears escalated over the Greek debt crisis. With the dollar/euro exchange rates under pressure oil lost value pulling down NBP gas and UK power prices too. read more...
Downward Trend Still in Play
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
13 May 2011
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
A Market Correction?
Losses were seen in the UK energy markets this week despite oil gains. This was the first sign that gas was decoupling from oil with suggestions in market implying that the recent gains had been ‘over done. read more...
08 April 2011
Losses were seen in the UK energy markets this week despite oil gains. This was the first sign that gas was decoupling from oil with suggestions in market implying that the recent gains had been ‘over done. read more...
Monthly Review - Jan 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
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