Peak vs Baseload

18 June 2007

Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing.

Shape risk has become more of an issue for some suppliers over the last couple of years. When gas prices were high running of generation was limited to peak only and this tended to suppress peak prices. Also emissions prices tended to make nights more expensive and increase off peak prices. Therefore in the "old days" peak vs baseload was around 1.2. Now that gas prices have fallen and the cost of emissions are low this spread has widened out to nearer 1.26 and on occasions is trading at a 1.3 ratio.

Canny suppliers are suggesting that this change in market conditions should be applied to market contracts going forward in reality this is a little like saying that because the price is at £60/MWh we are going to ifx your contract at these levels for next year and the year after. There is no doubt that the change means that shape risks are increasing but these are risks which suppliers manage all the time and the additional charges should not always be passed on at will to the customer.


Forward Curve  Risk Management  shape 

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