Fundamentals (Part 3)

24 January 2007

nPower strengthen the belief that further falls in the market are less likely.

nPower have launched a "Tracker" tariff. There are clearly a number of players who have complained loudly that the 60% fall in wholesale prices which have not been passed on to end users is unfair. They have asked for slightly more flexible products and although this is aimed at the retail customer/or small SME user it is clear that it is a preemptive strike against players who are locked in at these high prices and will prevent nPower from having to reduce prices to quickly.

In reality it is a clue to traders that nPower feel that the market is close to a fundamental low. They would have been unhappy to offer this product in a world when they had a potentially largely falling market. This product suits players who want to take risk. Those in the know will note that the price fall occurs every quarter and there have to be five pound drops between quarters. So if we take the last 6 months there will have been low prices and there would have been two falls. In reality it is unlikely the market is unlikely to fall a further £5 (on an annual price)

Furthermore, they are limiting this product to 10,000 customers and so this is clearly a great PR ruse, but hints that nPower do not believe that there are substantial falls left in the market.


Supply  Risk Management 

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