The market is not reacting well to the emissions world and the vrious interesting reports coming from banks predicting prices for the future.
The swiss bank UBS have released a report which is causing many to sit up and notice. They have estimated that the Phase one market will be 341 Mtonnes long (oversupplied for 2007) and that phase 2 will 167 tonnes short (undersupplied) for 2008.
This kind of analysis is most interesting because it starts to make one realise that the spread between Phase 1 and Phase 2 is still reasonably narrow, in that it currently lies at around €12. UBS go on to state that for 2007 they forecast an average CO2-price of €3/t. For 2008-2010 €20/t driven by summer gas prices. They forecast the emissions price to increase to €30/t in 2012 and to €35/t for 2013-2015 due to increased fuel switching. The forecast for phase 2 is however uncertain (credible scenarios between €15-35/t). This forecast is assuming $65/tcoal and a $56/bbl oil price.
As phase one prices continue to fall to €3 it is clear that the back end is coming with it and this is unexpected. Particularly as the EU has to rule on Phase II naps by the end of March.
02 May 2006
The emissions market has not only collapsed it has also switched from being in backwardation to being in contango. read more...
18 April 2006
Oil talk dominates the news with record highs, but the power market does not seem to reacting too much, gas already well bid is being careful about further rises. read more...
29 March 2006
The UK Phase II nap is under consulatation and the energy sector is going to have to cut emissions further, a switch to gas will help, but don't expect a fall in emissions prices and for this to be passed on to the consumer. read more...
05 March 2006
The peak baseload ratio is a good traders guide to the state of the market. Much below 1.1 and you need to buying peaks, much above 1.5 and you need to be selling them, but it is perhaps more interesting to look at the individual ratios against each other. read more...
11 January 2006
The bulls buy up back end of the curve, as sometimes it is difficult to forget the rises seen in 2005. read more...
CRC- What Price?
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
03 February 2012
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Japan, Germany & MENA -Global Energy
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
18 March 2011
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
Capacity Payments Discussed as a Tool to encourage Investment
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
30 June 2010
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
Coal, Gas & Carbon all help to hold WInter Down
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
28 April 2008
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Crude Oil Breaks Through $110bbl
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
04 March 2011
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
11 November 2010
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
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