Spreads often show correlations and how they might be linked but the correlations are breaking between Winter and Summer throughout the curve.
The clean spark spread for Summer 07 is £9.94. The clean dark spread for Summer 07 is £7.26.
The clean spark spread for Winter 07 is £5.68. The clean dark spread for Winter 07 is £14.02.
Therefore during the Summers the gas plant will generate first and during the Winter 07 the coal price will generate first. This is unlikely fuel costs between seasons vary because of storage and demand, and whilst the gas price is more expensive in the Winter so is the corresponding power and coal price.
These spreads suggest that the premium associated with Winter gas is too high and is being translated into the spark spread going forward. In reality, traders should be rolling the shorts i.e. shorting the summer and buying back during the winter this arbitrages out the differences so that the premium associated with winter gas is eroded.
24 October 2006
Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be. read more...
16 October 2006
Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down. read more...
04 May 2006
Dark and spark spread prices are causing some concern, as they are not fundamentally changing the way the world looks at fuel for producing power. read more...
30 January 2006
Spark and dark spreads show that the need for gas during the Summer is low, so we should see a hike in spark spread and a fall in gas prices, but it doesn't always work like that. read more...
17 June 2005
"'Curiouser and curiouser,' cried Alice!" Alice and Wonderland read more...
Shale Gas - Latest UK estimates suggest enough for next 11 years
Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least. read more...
22 September 2011
Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least. read more...
Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
Downward Trend Still in Play
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
13 May 2011
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
Winter 11 - A Slippery Slope
While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example. read more...
06 May 2011
While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Winter 11 - A Slippery Slope
While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example. read more...
06 May 2011
While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example. read more...
Where's the certainty?
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
Dong buy Severn Power
The Danish energy utility, Dong have bought one part of Carron Energy. read more...
10 March 2009
The Danish energy utility, Dong have bought one part of Carron Energy. read more...
Green Light for additional 3.92GW of Capacity
The development of 3.92GW of power plant capacity was given the green light yesterday by the Department for Energy & Climate Change. read more...
06 February 2009
The development of 3.92GW of power plant capacity was given the green light yesterday by the Department for Energy & Climate Change. read more...
A sliding Prompt
A comfortable system in terms of supply margins left the prompt power market sliding. read more...
14 November 2008
A comfortable system in terms of supply margins left the prompt power market sliding. read more...
February Monthly Round Up
February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves. read more...
25 February 2011
February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves. read more...
Where has the market got left to go?
Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels. read more...
03 September 2010
Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels. read more...
Where's the certainty?
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
Drax up against it
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
05 March 2008
Drax profit margins fall as competition will only get harder. read more...
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