The market knows that the bottom cannot be too far away but it is being cagey when it wanst to test the low levels.
The price does not appear to be going anywhere. The upside was tested late last week and this week all gains have been eroded, in normal trading we would expect the price to continue to fall and test bottoms. BY this we would expect Summer to go into the £20 mark and possibly the high teens and for Winter to break £30. It has not so what does this mean.
Well in reality it means that we are likely to see some more market testing, and that the market is happy to have period of stability, it is also ignoring gas and oil falls and splintering the correlation based on fundamentals. This means that although no one knows where the bottom of the market is we do know that we are getting closer and closer to it, and this is making traders very wary of selling at the bottom.
Many of the big utilities will be relying on a surge in power prices as a result of the April sales round and the return of players to the market buying we do tend to see a bit of a pick up in prices in March but so far this year has been highly atypical and history may be the worst guide to use.
06 January 2006
Traders sell curve as an opening gambit to put positions on for 2006. Customers wary of a potential rise, look at reassessing the market in front of them and try to think like traders. read more...
27 June 2005
"The most valuable commodity I know of is information." Wall Street read more...
06 June 2005
Traders get rich on high prices for shape premia. read more...
12 April 2005
Morgan Stanley downgrades Corus. read more...
The Rally Continues in Electricity
Where June ended on a bearish note, July opened with a distinctly more bullish feel to it. By the 8th July, the Winter contracts had each gained around £1/MWh with Winter 11 trading at £57.70/MWh, Winter 12 at £59.60/MWh and Winter 13 at £63.45/MWh. read more...
08 July 2011
Where June ended on a bearish note, July opened with a distinctly more bullish feel to it. By the 8th July, the Winter contracts had each gained around £1/MWh with Winter 11 trading at £57.70/MWh, Winter 12 at £59.60/MWh and Winter 13 at £63.45/MWh. read more...
Energy Curves regain some of the Losses
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains. read more...
01 July 2011
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains. read more...
Prompt Prices at a Premium to Winter..
The focus this week has been on the prompt markets with system constraints and gas uncertainty the main cause. Together the constraints and uncertainty have had an interesting impact on the shape of the power forward curve. read more...
01 October 2010
The focus this week has been on the prompt markets with system constraints and gas uncertainty the main cause. Together the constraints and uncertainty have had an interesting impact on the shape of the power forward curve. read more...
Gains Seen Across the Curve
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
New trading levels anticipated in UK Power Markets
The electricity market saw two main technical levels breached for the first time in the Summer 10 and Winter 10 contracts. read more...
28 August 2009
The electricity market saw two main technical levels breached for the first time in the Summer 10 and Winter 10 contracts. read more...
Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Crude Oil Breaks Through $110bbl
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
04 March 2011
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
11 November 2010
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
Shale Gas - Latest UK estimates suggest enough for next 11 years
Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least. read more...
22 September 2011
Cuadrilla Resources, the company at the forefront of Britain's Shale gas exploration released its first estimates of the amount of shale gas contained in the rocks of Lancashire. At 200 trillion cubic feet, the estimates are significant to say the least. read more...
2nd Quarter Growth at 1.1%; What Role For Energy
Preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests the UK economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, up from the previous quarter's 0.3%. While the figures are preliminary (and based on around 40% of the ultimate data), what they do show is that construction, a relatively small part of the economy, contributed significantly to this growth figure. With 6 out of 10 civil engineering firms looking to the energy and water sectors for their income streams, it seems energy has a role to play in underpinning the recovery. read more...
23 July 2010
Preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests the UK economy grew by 1.1% in the second quarter, up from the previous quarter's 0.3%. While the figures are preliminary (and based on around 40% of the ultimate data), what they do show is that construction, a relatively small part of the economy, contributed significantly to this growth figure. With 6 out of 10 civil engineering firms looking to the energy and water sectors for their income streams, it seems energy has a role to play in underpinning the recovery. read more...
Green Investment Bank still a Concept
Leading figures from across industry warned that the need for new tools to finance future investment in infrastructure are necessary to secure Britain's growth as a low carbon economy. While the coalitions Green Investment Bank (GIB) is supported, it is important to recognise that it is still at present only a concept. read more...
16 July 2010
Leading figures from across industry warned that the need for new tools to finance future investment in infrastructure are necessary to secure Britain's growth as a low carbon economy. While the coalitions Green Investment Bank (GIB) is supported, it is important to recognise that it is still at present only a concept. read more...
Suddenly it's "British Petroleum"
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
02 June 2010
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
A Week for Releasing Figures
With the political debate heating up; more 'head to heads' scheduled and with the News Channels pouring over polls, polls of polls and more polls - then the economic figures coming out this week are surely going to add a lot more ingredients to the boiling pot. read more...
20 April 2010
With the political debate heating up; more 'head to heads' scheduled and with the News Channels pouring over polls, polls of polls and more polls - then the economic figures coming out this week are surely going to add a lot more ingredients to the boiling pot. read more...
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