The emissions market is still having a significant effect on the forward curve as players are still happy to pay some premiums associated with buying forward.
The EU ETS in some respects is not helping the forward curve. If we consider that the current scheme expires at the end of 2007 with EUA's trading at just below €1 and then wake up on 1st January 2008 and EUA's cost just under €18 then we can see that there is a significant fractional break.
This explains easily why the curve starts off in contango going from Summer 07 prices at £24 to Summer 08 prices £34. All the evidence suggests that the cost of carbon in a £/MWh calculation is closer to £5 (on a gas clean spark spread) if we were to apply the same number for coal then this would equate to £8, so the ten pound differential is caused by the a mixture of coal and gas (lets say 50%) £6.25 hike in carbon costs and a £3.75 in premia for buying forward.
The problem is that the emissions market has risen from €15.50 to €17.80 and is danger of players over buying early as of course the NAPs at first glance look tight. BUt we are seeing many more players in the market looking at selling and the world-wide market and supply of CERS is keeping a firm lid on emissions.
02 May 2006
The emissions market has not only collapsed it has also switched from being in backwardation to being in contango. read more...
11 January 2006
The bulls buy up back end of the curve, as sometimes it is difficult to forget the rises seen in 2005. read more...
26 August 2005
"What goes up must come down!" In most cases. read more...
30 June 2005
Contango - Is when the front end of the market is trading at a discount to the back end. It is more natural for markets to be in backwardation. Power markets being the exception to the rule. read more...
06 May 2005
Sleeping easy but at what price. read more...
CRC- What Price?
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
03 February 2012
In November it was reported that traders in the UK energy markets were beginning to place bets that the Government will not go ahead with its controversial Carbon Floor Price. The Carbon Floor Price has relevance to the CRC, not least because some commentators have suggested that the fixed price levels could track the known Carbon Floor Price. Current EUA prices also seem vastly at odds to the proposed CRC price. British business is lobbying hard for a level and competitive playing field. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Japan, Germany & MENA -Global Energy
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
18 March 2011
Bullish gains were seen across the fuels complex as traders and analysts rushed to assess the impact of the devastating earthquake and subsequent Tsunami in Japan as well as Germany's announcement that it was to take 7 nuclear generators offline immediately. read more...
Capacity Payments Discussed as a Tool to encourage Investment
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
30 June 2010
In a week when the engineering industry, in its State of the Nation report, said that the Energy Industry gave the most cause for concern in light of security of supply, Energy Minister Charles Hendry spoke of 'Capacity Payments' as a tool to incentivise plant development. read more...
Coal, Gas & Carbon all help to hold WInter Down
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
28 April 2008
Contracts across the power curve opened strongly helped by the high prices reported in the oil markets. read more...
Bearish Gas Market
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
04 September 2009
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
Should I buy long term power contracts?
With a market in contango, should the customer steer clear of long term contracts? Probably not.. read more...
14 August 2009
With a market in contango, should the customer steer clear of long term contracts? Probably not.. read more...
Summers Lack Shape
Oil price volatility, credit constraints and the Lehman collapse has all badly affected liquidity further out on the gas curve. read more...
27 October 2008
Oil price volatility, credit constraints and the Lehman collapse has all badly affected liquidity further out on the gas curve. read more...
Not a Single Record in Sight
Comfortable margins on the system as well as a Bank Holiday helped to minimise the gains recorded in the UK Power market on Friday. read more...
27 May 2008
Comfortable margins on the system as well as a Bank Holiday helped to minimise the gains recorded in the UK Power market on Friday. read more...
Q4 v Q1 Future (Gas)
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse. read more...
04 February 2008
Spreads sometimes show how markets can change, and this gas spread is an interesting one to analyse. read more...
Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Carbon Floor Price Announcement: The Market Reacts
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
25 March 2011
The tensions seen in the markets last week, as participants assessed the impact of Japan and nuclear withdrawal in Germany, appeared to have eased when the market started trading on Monday. The Government's mid week budget Carbon Floor Price announcement soon changes that though read more...
Crude Oil Breaks Through $110bbl
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
04 March 2011
Unfolding news in the Middle East continued to dominate the UK energy markets this week. When crude oil prices broke through $100bbl at the start of the month, the impact was noticeable on UK gas prices and Power prices in turn. Winter 11 power and gas closed the week at £55.75/MWh and 67p/therm respectively. read more...
New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
11 November 2010
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks? read more...
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