Power  the story so far

27 April 2007

Power prices continue to look for some form of direction and eventually traing managers will ask whether their traders are taking enough risks.

So we know that oil is not moving because it is rangebound and fundamentals suggest that the equilibrium of buyers and suppliers is well balanced. Gas is in a similar state with no real drivers pushing the market one way or another and those who wish to trade are tending to do so on the prompt with low risk trades.

Power not surprisingly is following suit. The key question is that the many of the traders have been tasked with making trading profits. If the market moves between £33.50 and £34 in Summer then the traders will become increasingly worried that the normal lot sizes will not be making them money and so they have to increase volume in order to justify being there. This is not happening.

Furthermore, when activity is as quiet as it is players must look at all the markets and start to trade more like George Soros or Warren Buffet and look at the long term and the big plays. Fundamentally this points to more bearish activity, but in the short term the buyers are being seen. Both the power and gas markets are in contango but the question is if the sellers come out further along the curve will they push the curve back into backwardation.


Electricity  Contango  Forward Curve 

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