The curve is changing shape this could be a short term thing as players tend to forget the back of the curve as it is less liquid but more often than not it is a fundamental shift in the market next week will tell.
The curve is changing a bit with further falls in the prompt setting a three year low at £17.50. But interestingly the back end of the curve is not following the same pattern and so the fron end is falling but the back end is falling less quickly. There is a very simple reason for this there is greater risk at the back end of the curve and players are reluctant to sell it down when the premia can be extracted.
What is clear is that the curve starts to backwardate after Summer 09 as more and more plant and reuctions in demand are predicted. Also further increases in gas and LNG and storage capacity are all reasons why the market prices should be lower than the year before but at the moment the fall is not quite great enough for a player to hedge a small amount out for a long period of time.
05 August 2005
Steady and boring means that it isn't going up and if anything looks more likely to test some of the longs who may be forced to take some profits as carbon, oil and gas all look soft. read more...
27 May 2005
Prompt no longer the driving force, as the curve diverges. read more...
28 February 2005
Normal trading resumed, with a fall off to reflect supply margins read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
November 2011 Review
While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive. read more...
02 December 2011
While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive. read more...
Plunging Prices Impact UK Energy market
Oil markets were described as 'plunging' as fears escalated over the Greek debt crisis. With the dollar/euro exchange rates under pressure oil lost value pulling down NBP gas and UK power prices too. read more...
17 June 2011
Oil markets were described as 'plunging' as fears escalated over the Greek debt crisis. With the dollar/euro exchange rates under pressure oil lost value pulling down NBP gas and UK power prices too. read more...
Downward Trend Still in Play
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
13 May 2011
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm. read more...
A Market Correction?
Losses were seen in the UK energy markets this week despite oil gains. This was the first sign that gas was decoupling from oil with suggestions in market implying that the recent gains had been ‘over done. read more...
08 April 2011
Losses were seen in the UK energy markets this week despite oil gains. This was the first sign that gas was decoupling from oil with suggestions in market implying that the recent gains had been ‘over done. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
Weather continues to dominate
Tight margin concerns resulted in Spot prices reaching highs for nearly two years. The cold weather conditions were the driving force though supply issues compounded the situation. read more...
10 December 2010
Tight margin concerns resulted in Spot prices reaching highs for nearly two years. The cold weather conditions were the driving force though supply issues compounded the situation. read more...
Cold snap results in single highest gain since Jul-09
Prompt contracts responded to the expected cold spell forecast for this week with the Day Ahead contract (Baseload contract for Monday delivery) on Friday gaining £2.65/MWh – the single highest gain seen since July on this contract. This bullish sentiment did not feed through to the rest of the curve though. read more...
08 November 2010
Prompt contracts responded to the expected cold spell forecast for this week with the Day Ahead contract (Baseload contract for Monday delivery) on Friday gaining £2.65/MWh – the single highest gain seen since July on this contract. This bullish sentiment did not feed through to the rest of the curve though. read more...
Gains Seen Across the Curve
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
Market forgets basic principles and panics!
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
02 October 2009
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
Too Many Buyers….
Too many buyers and not enough sellers were the reasons attributed to significant gains seen in the power markets. read more...
08 October 2008
Too many buyers and not enough sellers were the reasons attributed to significant gains seen in the power markets. read more...
Peak vs Baseload
Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing. read more...
18 June 2007
Sometimes negotiation on some elements of price could result in some interesting opening into the black box which is electricity pricing. read more...
Why volume risk is greater than one thinks
Volume to the supplier is important but little changes in volume can soon mount up and so players must be careful when they have a growing portfolio. read more...
21 March 2007
Volume to the supplier is important but little changes in volume can soon mount up and so players must be careful when they have a growing portfolio. read more...
The Nightmare Scenario
The market balloons in price, profiling is abandoned, and Mrs Jones at 33 Wavertree Mansions is seen showering at 3am in the morning. Unlikely, but it is happening in the water industry. read more...
01 March 2006
The market balloons in price, profiling is abandoned, and Mrs Jones at 33 Wavertree Mansions is seen showering at 3am in the morning. Unlikely, but it is happening in the water industry. read more...
Does shape matter?
Under the NETA rules the market would always favour those who are flexible and able to adapt. As stability in market prices is becoming more normal, this allows players to assess the market even start to think about creating flexibility within their own shape. read more...
27 February 2006
Under the NETA rules the market would always favour those who are flexible and able to adapt. As stability in market prices is becoming more normal, this allows players to assess the market even start to think about creating flexibility within their own shape. read more...
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