It is exceedingly dangerous for any tradre to rely solely on history. In most markets we can see some trends which can repeat themselves, but it is not always the case. In a normal market we tend to see February as bearish March as bullish and April as bearish. The trend for there to be more buyers in March due to the traditional sales round may well be disappearing but many in the market still think that it goes on and tend to front run the buying stampede. Then when it has settled down and buyers have departed we see the market correct itself. In some years this has been a £4-£8 correction in other years it has been a mere blip.

So will it happen this year, if oil prices stop climbing and Langeled returns to normal service (with the Troll gas field not mis-behaving) then we could see the £4-£8 correction, this is doubly true when we look at day ahead which despite loads of outages still has 8GW of additional capacity, and struggling to get higher than £22.