Technicals appear to be back in fashion

05 September 2006

The market is trading in a much more stable way than last year and technicals are very much more in fashion.

Last year with the market moving as violently as it was most traders abandoned any notion of trading technicals. In fact most were not even relying on fundamentals they were simply riding the storm associated with risk management. They knew that a short position was the most unwanted situation and as a result were pricing signicant bid offer spreads in to hedge against the volatility. Wind the clock forward to this year and it is clear that there are significant trading technical levels. Winter 06 £54, Summer 07 £42, Winter 07 £52. If the market shifts below these levels then it is likely we are in for sustained fall. These will be new lows and we will be looking to returning to a 2004 type figures. This would see Summer start with a 3 and Winter with a 4!


Forward Curve  Risk Management  Volatility 

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