Consolidation but only if you are German

01 September 2006



The share price in Scottish Power rose yesterday on speculation that RWE would make a bid for it. With 240m customers in Europe, economies of scale are an obvious driver.  However, the European playing field looks far from level, and the rules of the game don't seem that fair either.

The share price in Scottish Power rose yesterday on speculation that RWE would make a bid for it. There is no doubt that with 240m customers in Europe the two German utilities see that economies of scale are the way forward. RWE has diversified into water and telecoms but has realised the errors of its ways, and is looking to sell Thames water.

E.On have been progressing with the takeover of Endessa a spanish utility. This has run into problems as the Spaniards look to protect their national industries. Ironically, the EU has stepped in to stop the anti-competitive behaviour of the regulator, but then is also likely to look at anti-competitive behaviour as a result of the monopoly that will be created. The Germans are not regulated, apart from by the EU, and it appears that they are allowed to buy up other utilities outside of their own country with little resistance.  When the likes of Powergen and National Power looked to do this ten years ago they were prevented.

Deregulation in the UK started in 1989, and was encouraged across Europe in 1996. So it seems grossly unfair and wrong that in both Germany and France full de-regulation will not be completed until 2007 a full 9 years after the UK and Norway (which is not part of the EU 25).

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Polish Emissions certificates  

04 September 2006


Polish authorities hint at withdrawing the polish length by reducing the amount installations can sell. This is posturing that is unlikely to stand but in the mean time it could cause the market to rise.    read more...

Technicals appear to be back in fashion  

05 September 2006


The market is trading in a much more stable way than last year and technicals are very much more in fashion.  read more...

NPower announces price increase  

07 September 2006


NPower raise prices which was not really a shock given the activity of others but then they had prided themselves on being better and more innovative.  read more...

Making sense of power prices.  

11 September 2006


Power prices have fallen in the past 3 months, 2009 is trading at a £5 discount to 2007, yet suppliers are increasing their tariffs and offering contracts to fix this year’s price for the next few years. Does it make sense?  read more...

Getting Connected  

12 September 2006


Testing has now begun on the new, 750 mile Langeled gas pipeline between Norway and the UK, and first commercial deliveries will begin next month.  Good news for the supply shortage fears?  We hope so.   read more...

Polish Emissions  

13 September 2006


Given the EUA length of the Poles, it is now obvious that the Poles hoodwinked the EU into thinking that they would require a significant proportion of the EU EUA allowance. But can anyone now bring this length back to the market?  read more...

Windfarms: Talking to the Experts  

14 September 2006


There are number of possible Windfarm projects floating around but are these projects based on the right components. Is there such a thing as too many experts!  read more...

New energy research centre planned  

15 September 2006


The UK Government has published details of its planned £1bn energy research institute.  With a mix of private and public funding, the Energy Technolgies Institute aims to pool expertise across the sector.  read more...

Bottom of the market  

18 September 2006


The bear run is continuing and this year it is based on fundamentals rather than speculation which makes it more sustained and more longer.  read more...

Is buying far dated smart?  

19 September 2006


Some of the long dated products look like bargains but are there other ways of buying this.  read more...

Raw Facts  

20 September 2006


Market still looks high even though it has fallen.  read more...

Hedge Funds dominate the market  

22 September 2006


The market has seen the effects of hedge funds, big players who can move markets when reversing positions, they can also push them too far and the skill in any trader is moving the market but not doing it so unsubtley that the market front runs you. Hedge funds struggle with this due to the volume of trades required to reverse the position.  read more...

Big Numbers  

25 September 2006


Traders have to become less lazy so that they are not misquoted volatility is showing VaR levels will be breached if you are long and wrong.  read more...

What's it oil about?  

26 September 2006


The oil market is tending to be an influence again in gas and power.  read more...

Spanish Harlem  

27 September 2006


The spanish utilities appear to be merging, being bought out and up setting the EU and the local politicians all at the same time, can they do anything right.  read more...

Amaranth-short living herb  

28 September 2006


Amaranth the hedge fund has set out how it intends to wind up its positions after the single largest bad trade in history. Brian Hunter the trader has been summarily dismissed but perhaps more importantly where are the risk managers monitoring his position. Losing $6bn is a staggering amount of money. It would take 5hours to count $5 bills before you hit $1m, it would take you 2.5 months to count $1bn.  read more...

Dead Cat Bounce  

29 September 2006


Oil price rise on Opec fears but is it a short lived tradery rumour.... probably because it fits the pyschological and technical processes of all markets.  read more...


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