Battering seen in markets

25 October 2006

Some might argue that the Christmas sales have come early as all markets slid on fundamental data which shows that in mild weather and with plenty of plant available prices tend to fall.

November has valiantly held up against the fundamentals with less than week left of the trading month left. It was inevitable that with day ahead trading at shade above £30 that paying £44 for the month was looking expensive. Those long just had to sell into this strength and in the last two days we have seen Nov fall by over £2. December has followed suit but the suggestions are that £48 is high and January at £54 is looking very high. This suggests that Winter 07 has some movement down, and the March trading at £45 has been sold everytime a bid has been placed. Surely March can be picked up far cheaper than £45, the main reason for the high is the history associated with the release of gas in March and the spark spread looking reasonable. If gas falls (which it will in March) then watch power go with it with vengeance.

Finally Summer 07 has witheld the battering moving down to £37 but bid on at these levels. The power players seem content to support the market, but for how long will they be able to sustain the onslaught.


Bear Market 

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