02 October 2006
On the day-ahead (which by no means a panacea for the whole market) the clean spark was cheaper than the clean dark. Recently with gas prices falling and with emissions also falling the coal price has started to look a little bit more expensive. This has had the effect of generators beginning to run gas before they would run coal. Whilst this will have little effect on this Winter (where gas was the marginal plant last year) it is likely to have a bigger effect on the Summer. Gas outages and gas plant tend to take outages during the Summer and with the clean spark spread pushing coal to the margin it could inflate Summer 07 prices. In reality the gas falls have been so great that fundamentally the falls in raw fuel costs outweigh the marginal plant argument.
Finally it will put pressure on power stations which burn coal to sell some of the output. Shares in Drax should fall to reflect this reversal of fortune as a result they will be sliding down the merit ordre.
Risk management dichotomy
Risk managers can rest easy when they are short and the market is falling but they will be aware that we are in territory and that correlations and spreads have started to look very different from last year. read more...
03 October 2006
Risk managers can rest easy when they are short and the market is falling but they will be aware that we are in territory and that correlations and spreads have started to look very different from last year. read more...
Gas prices go negative
Gas prices prove elusive as they go negative the first time for ten years. read more...
04 October 2006
Gas prices prove elusive as they go negative the first time for ten years. read more...
Some bullish stories returning to the market
Some bullish stories will appear from time to time, some hedging of positions should be advised but don't feel the need to hedge it all. read more...
05 October 2006
Some bullish stories will appear from time to time, some hedging of positions should be advised but don't feel the need to hedge it all. read more...
Greenpeace sues the government
A funny Friday calls for a funny story a true one and an interesting one but unlikely to go far. read more...
06 October 2006
A funny Friday calls for a funny story a true one and an interesting one but unlikely to go far. read more...
RO under review
The green lobby are beginning to get to the government, is it common sense or the fact that the leader of the opposition has parked his tanks on that particular lawn. read more...
09 October 2006
The green lobby are beginning to get to the government, is it common sense or the fact that the leader of the opposition has parked his tanks on that particular lawn. read more...
Oil opec decision not as bullish as people think
Oil has always been an influence but it is becoming less of an issue when it is falling. Gas prices are being driven by the fundamentals and this is what is causing the players to look carefully when the have buying to do in the market, the big question is if oil goes $50/brl will gas and power fall as well. read more...
10 October 2006
Oil has always been an influence but it is becoming less of an issue when it is falling. Gas prices are being driven by the fundamentals and this is what is causing the players to look carefully when the have buying to do in the market, the big question is if oil goes $50/brl will gas and power fall as well. read more...
E.On caught between a ROC and a hard place
E.On looking at serious alternatives to CCGT technology which is not necessarily that green. read more...
11 October 2006
E.On looking at serious alternatives to CCGT technology which is not necessarily that green. read more...
Climate Change Bill
There will be a climate change bill and it will result hopefully in a better more clear streamlined trading environment. read more...
12 October 2006
There will be a climate change bill and it will result hopefully in a better more clear streamlined trading environment. read more...
Where have all the bulls gone
The market looks stagnant but volatility has risen as it lurches from new lows to £1-£3 higher in two days. This is more volatile than a steady fall. read more...
13 October 2006
The market looks stagnant but volatility has risen as it lurches from new lows to £1-£3 higher in two days. This is more volatile than a steady fall. read more...
A tale of the forward dark spread.
Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down. read more...
16 October 2006
Some long term hedging is effecting the market and the lack of buyers has caused the markets to turn South, although oil has bobbled up on Friday the long term trend still appears to be down. read more...
British Energy -makes markets jittery
The markets are responding in different ways with the power market looking at the nuclears carefully and the gas markets looking at the world of over supply. read more...
17 October 2006
The markets are responding in different ways with the power market looking at the nuclears carefully and the gas markets looking at the world of over supply. read more...
Oil and Nuclears still dictate the market
Oil and nuclears are still the key price drivers, it almost appears that the market is waiting for a cold snap or a warm announcement to get their next key price driver. read more...
18 October 2006
Oil and nuclears are still the key price drivers, it almost appears that the market is waiting for a cold snap or a warm announcement to get their next key price driver. read more...
Today is the day that NGT predict Winter
The NGT report for Winter will have the traders on tenterhooks, as to whether the gas supply is as long as everyone suspects. In reality they have always been peddlers of doom and so if it is a bad report take it with a pinch of salt. read more...
19 October 2006
The NGT report for Winter will have the traders on tenterhooks, as to whether the gas supply is as long as everyone suspects. In reality they have always been peddlers of doom and so if it is a bad report take it with a pinch of salt. read more...
Spark spread of interest
Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be. read more...
24 October 2006
Sparkers dictate the movement of the markets, but it is never as simple as it is cracked up to be. read more...
Battering seen in markets
Some might argue that the Christmas sales have come early as all markets slid on fundamental data which shows that in mild weather and with plenty of plant available prices tend to fall. read more...
25 October 2006
Some might argue that the Christmas sales have come early as all markets slid on fundamental data which shows that in mild weather and with plenty of plant available prices tend to fall. read more...
24 Years for the greatest bank robbery in history
Jeffery Skilling has alot to answer for but eventually some form of forgiveness had to come for him it is a non-custodial sentence of 24 years. read more...
26 October 2006
Jeffery Skilling has alot to answer for but eventually some form of forgiveness had to come for him it is a non-custodial sentence of 24 years. read more...
Weather Check
Weather forecasts suggest that the mild weather will last well into November, but when it does start to get cold look for those tell tale price increases. read more...
27 October 2006
Weather forecasts suggest that the mild weather will last well into November, but when it does start to get cold look for those tell tale price increases. read more...
The Green cost code
The principles behind a green tax economy to some extent work, but governments must be careful not to tax their own, to the point of making themselves uncompetitive in a gloabalised economy. read more...
30 October 2006
The principles behind a green tax economy to some extent work, but governments must be careful not to tax their own, to the point of making themselves uncompetitive in a gloabalised economy. read more...
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