Bearish Sentiment Continues

25 July 2005

Winter still being sold, as bears return with a vengeance. Perhaps a clear sign of a sustained fall is to see whether Winter 05 can fall below £50/MWh and stay there.

Friday traded like the previous couple of days, a big sell off in the morning followed by a slight buy back in the afternoon, resulting in net losses across the curve. Winter 05 flirted with breaking £50/MWh but in fact only managed to trade at this number. Winter was bid up after tradding at £50/MWh and not surprisingly there is a pschological barrier to breaking the magic £50 mark. If spark spreads correct and the carbon prices continue to fall, there is no reason for Winter to stay as high as it is. Day ahead remained surprisingly high, at £33/MWh and August and September continue to surprise at these high levels. Perhaps most interestingly is the £7/MWh increase between September and October. In order to justify the Winter 05 prices this gap has been wider, but in reality it just looks too steep. With a fast moving traded market like this there are opportunities in very different areas.


Bear Market 

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