Rumour and Counter Rumour

08 May 2006

Rumours still influence the emissions market and on Friday the consistent selling on the back of German compliance positions being short suggest that the market has now managed to extract data on one the potential large shorts (the fact that they are long saw prices fall) if the UK is in a similar position then the market will fall further.

As UK politics has descended into semi-farce with a reshuffle which sees 15 cabinet positional changes the news has become an orgy of rumour and counter rumour. The political on goings are no different the emissions market which was hit with another €2 euro fall on friday as a premature release of information on the German emissions compliance statement which showed that they were 14 million tonnes long. Late on in the afternoon the government were in denial and claiming that compliance statements would be released on May 15th as agreed with the commission.

The damage had been done and the market dropped at the backend to reflect the further drops in 06 and 07. 08 has stayed remarkably buoyant, but emissions fears will be countered with a greater supply of gas and oil and a possible downturn in demand as a result of econmic cycles. This still suggests that parts of the curve Win 06 and Sum 08 and Winter 08 look high, buoyed by idiosyncracies of emissions, Rough, rumour and counter- rumour.


Carbon  UK Government  EU 

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