How far can emissions go

03 May 2006

The emissions market has been bashed will it spring back up to previous levels. It is unlikely but possible Powerisk looks at it in detail.

The market is still reeling from the collapse in emissions. Some say that they are flaberghasted that the emissions market has fallen on the information that a few small countries are long. They state that the market could bounce back up if Germany Poland Italy and UK come in short. In reality though the market incentives people to comply and in order to comply the fine suggests that it is better to be long and wrong rather than short and caught. Not surprisingly this has meant that the world of emissions has seen those short either reduce production of CO2 (which has been more prevalent than people expected) or to buy the credits. Perhaps only the power industry which can pass on the costs has done so and Powerisks suspects that both the UK and Germany (high coal power producing countries) may be slightly short of emissions. But the credits were assessed in a time when coal was prevalent anyway and the size of the shorts does not detract from the rest of the market and the potential that the emissions market could collapse to zero if everyone is long. At this point it would be worth buying them in bucket loads because markets go to where it hurts and the collapse was inevitable so will the subsequent rise. We are not at the bottom of the market yet, but soon we will be.


Carbon  Bear Market  Forward Curve 

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