On Wednesday late on in the trading period, Opec announced that it was to keep the status quo and not cut oil production. This news would have been interpreted as a bearish signal for oil. Also in the announcement, they stated that if they were looking at pure demand and supply fundamentals, they would have cut oil production because America and other world users have been storing more oil, another bearish signal. At a similar time, the Iran oil minister was quizzed over OPEC's decision and he stated that they would not use oil as a negotiating threat with the UN when discussing civil nuclear options. The states has been hawkish on Iran and it appears that the UN is moving more towards imposing sanctions, despite the Iranian ministers assurances that it would not be on the negotiating table, OPEC and others kept the status quo for geo-political reasons, a bullish signal. Potential supply problems in Nigeria and general unrest tipped the balance for a slight rise in oil prices.

Yesterday afternoon, this rise in price fed into the curve for the gas and power markets and general back end shift upwards on the back of oil was seen. We are not reaching new highs and the main difference from last year is that storage and the potential for the unexpected appears to be calculated into the curve already. It might be that over time the market does not move enough and that yesterday and todays buyers will be forced to off load soon, but one must suspect that this rise could be the start of a bull run.