
21 March 2006
Volatility is a great measure for risk models, and all traders will be aware of it even though some do not model or trade it. But sometimes even volatility has to be handled carefully.
A generalisation is that anyone can trade but you have to be seriously good to be an options trader. Options or derivatives are a dark art, Warren Buffet has described them as "Weapons of finance destruction" the reason for this is that they are geared fianancial trades and so if they go wrong or right they do it a dramatic fashion.
Options traders trade volatility, they do not care whether the market goes up or down as long as it continues to do both, as often and as violently as it likes if they are long volatility and completely the opposite if they are short volatility. Options traders measure volatility on a historical basis but also on an implied basis, this is in effect back calculating where volatility is according to where the market for premia are. These calculations are very complex and the most used formula ended with the creators getting a nobel prize. In fact the options formula contains some references to measuring rocket trajectories using Eto's calculus, perhaps options trading is rocket science.
Many risk models look at volatility which shows the probability of a market movement, if the market has moved £30 in a week, then there is a certain probability that it might do it again, irrespective as to whether we are at new highs or lows. Financial models in the city have recently included a rare volatility blip the one caused by Sept 11th. This blip has caused models to hold back release of risk capital, but the expectation is that after five years the blip will be removed from the models freeing up more capital. The release of capital can be what can cause the bubble mentality, and players must guard against being too risky with their risk capital.
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Stock and commodities are they connected
 
28 February 2007
The market is definitely in a state of flux with some players suggesting that a bull run is imminent but others hint that this is a flash in the pan. Everyone agrees that it is volatility which is returning.  
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Banks burst
 
06 December 2006
Banks are looking to expand and grow in the commodities markets.  
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Can Winter 07 break £50
 
30 August 2006
Watch the spreads this is where the money is being made and with volatility reducing it is no surprise that players are beginning to look at the margins and pricing these more accurately. Competition is back and beginning to bite.  
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Power and Gas pause for thought
 
25 November 2005
As the markets start to wind down for Christmas the price stays relatively high. Met forecasts of the coldest winter ever do not help the price fall lower.  
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November 2011 Review
 
02 December 2011
While debt repayment concerns combined with woeful economic indicators continued to be a feature throughout November, supply and demand fundamentals were an obvious driver too. Unseasonably warm weather combined with (and causing) plentiful gas storage meant that UK power and gas markets went into a nose dive.  
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Prepare for the clash of OPEC & IEA
 
23 November 2011
With less than a month to go until OPEC meets, the statements are beginning to fly: OPEC believe the oil market looks balanced while the IEA again are saying that high oil prices could harm fragile global economic growth. Let the battle begin!  
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Markets Still Jittery
 
21 November 2011
Most markets reported further losses today on the back of underlying nerves about the ability of both Europe and the US to repay their debts. Oil, commodities and equities all reported losses.  
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Turmoil returns on Greek Announcement
 
01 November 2011
Following last weeks announcement that the eurozone leaders had reached an agreement on a Greek bailout - one that would see banks take a 50% hit on their holdings of Greek debt, the Greek Prime Minister made his own shocking announcement that he plans to hold a referendum on the matter. The Markets tumble in response.  
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Eurozone Debt Deal Announced
 
27 October 2011
After prolonged discussions and late night talks, European leaders have announced a agreement on a a Eurozone debt deal. But will the devil be in the detail?  
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New White Paper highlights need for Energy Risk Management
 
11 November 2010
Yesterday, npower launched its new white paper, commissioned from the London School of Economics on Energy Risk Management for UK business. The paper comes on the back of research that suggests that UK businesses now feel that energy presents a higher level of risk to their business than health and safety and security issues. But what should businesses be doing to manage the risks?  
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An options strategy to suit.
 
31 October 2007
Options are creaping into flexible contracts and this is a good thing as they can provide insurance, but in reality, often they appear to be given away, but look carefully and what you are giving away in return.  
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