Many pundits rely on the fact that history repeats itself. In fact technicals are all about looking at historical charts and studying patterns. One of the fears for traders is that this time last year saw a prolonged bull run from March through to mid June before a dramatic one day correction. The last two weeks has seen Win 06 creep up to new highs and oil and gas being pushed further higher on supply worries and a general feeling that the bulls are back.

Perhaps the biggest change from last year is that the emissions market is already at €27 and so for the equivalent rise seen last year we would have to see emissions prices rise to €225 this is highly highly unlikely and would no doubt cause a dramatic turn around in government policies. So will the rise be sustained until June 2006. Powerisk suspects not, and whilst the recent bullish run has been unexpected and slightly unfounded on the basis of some pretty dodgy second guessing of National Allocation Plans and prompt gas prices, we are where we are and players must learn to trade in choppier times. One suspects that we might start to have slightly milder weather and people see the longer summer evenings turn off their heating and no longer require gas, when this happens do not be surprised if the fall is as gradual as the stealth bullish run.