The market has slipped on fundamentals which suggest that the slide could be here for some time, but there are still events in the pipeline which could force some things North.
Winter and most of the curve both in the Uk and the continent slid on fundamental bearish news.
- Poland has annouced that it will be 12m tonnes long in the emissions market
- Rough looks to be back on schedule and the gas market has responded with a sell of particularly in the prompt and the Winter 06
- Iran has said that it will halt its nuclear programme, and oil prices have fallen on the back of the stabling news.
- Warm weather looks set to last and the Linepack (Gas Network) is showing length particularly as a number of gas stations are on outage and so supply is not around to soak up the length
- The Interconnector is on outage and so the length within the gas market is not escaping abroad, and this adds to the Linepack length.
It is to be noted that the Polish length is not as large as some had predicted (one suspects that this maybe on purpose). Rough is currently going through a seven day re-pressurisation process, and whilst this is not predicted to go wrong if it does then we will see gas prices shoot back up. Iran is encouraging but petro stability is still dependent upon Nigeria and Iraq and a summer terrorist attack would be bullish. Warm weather should be tempered with a typical british summer.
In short this prices maybe a little shortlived and it might be worth hedging some output at these levels.
25 January 2007
The market is responding to low demand plentiful supply with further falls. Summer 07 has not breached £25 but there is every chance it could. read more...
29 November 2005
Prices fall as most had predicted but with mild weather on the way the fear is when will the next cold snap strike. read more...
24 August 2005
Curve falls significantly, as the weather closes in there is a more bearish sentiment to price. read more...
09 August 2005
Markets rise on oil fears hitting new highs, gas trcikles up and Carbon looks to respond. The bulls are back in town. read more...
13 July 2005
Bears are back, downward spiral across all fundamentals is welcome relief for the shorts in the market. read more...
Natural Gas the one to watch
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
08 March 2010
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
Gas Imports Keep the System Balanced
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
08 January 2010
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
Gas Balancing Alert Issued
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
05 January 2010
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
Out with the Old, In with the New
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
31 December 2009
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
Where's the certainty?
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack! read more...
So the Bears continued to dominate in quiet trade
A lack of liquidity dominated the UK Energy Markets again this week with what activity there was focusing in on the Winter 10 seasonal contract. read more...
06 August 2010
A lack of liquidity dominated the UK Energy Markets again this week with what activity there was focusing in on the Winter 10 seasonal contract. read more...
All Quiet....
A very quiet day in the UK energy markets which saw very little traded during the period - hardly surprising given the combination of usual Friday slowdown, holidays, a comfortable system as well it being the last traded day of the month. read more...
30 July 2010
A very quiet day in the UK energy markets which saw very little traded during the period - hardly surprising given the combination of usual Friday slowdown, holidays, a comfortable system as well it being the last traded day of the month. read more...
Natural Gas the one to watch
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
08 March 2010
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
Power Prices Fall without Obama's help
While comments from President Obama on the banking industry hit the share price in most major companies, the UK power market managed to achieve losses all by itself. read more...
22 January 2010
While comments from President Obama on the banking industry hit the share price in most major companies, the UK power market managed to achieve losses all by itself. read more...
Bearish Gas Market
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
04 September 2009
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
The Energy Efficient Clock Change
A wet and cold week in store for most but clock change is likely to help absorb some of the impact of energy use - but could the clock do more? read more...
29 March 2010
A wet and cold week in store for most but clock change is likely to help absorb some of the impact of energy use - but could the clock do more? read more...
Natural Gas the one to watch
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
08 March 2010
The power curve ended the week down feeling the pressure from the fuel curves as well as healthy supply situation. Looking forward, the gas market is the one to watch as it continues to dominant the fuel mix accounting for 50% of generating plant. read more...
Gas Imports Keep the System Balanced
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
08 January 2010
Two GBAs in one week, use of Interruptible Supply Contracts and record temperatures but the system remains balanced and gas prices even drop during trading. read more...
Gas Balancing Alert Issued
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
05 January 2010
National Grid issues a rarely used Gas Balancing Alert following both supply and demand pressures. With severe weather warnings in place and freezing temperatures set to continue, will this be the last of the GBAs? read more...
Winter is Coming - or is it?
With the 'balmy' temperatures enjoyed over November , it's hard to believe that tomorrow officially marks the start of winter according to the Met Office - but what can we expect? read more...
30 November 2009
With the 'balmy' temperatures enjoyed over November , it's hard to believe that tomorrow officially marks the start of winter according to the Met Office - but what can we expect? read more...
UK Gas price highest in World.
The UK gas price in Q409 is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to the UK but there is real doubt as to whether these prices levels will be maintained. read more...
11 September 2009
The UK gas price in Q409 is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to the UK but there is real doubt as to whether these prices levels will be maintained. read more...
Bearish Gas Market
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
04 September 2009
The short system seen during the week provided little support in a bearish market. read more...
Centrica strategically planning
Centrica looks to Norway for the future. read more...
20 February 2008
Centrica looks to Norway for the future. read more...
Gas capacity change in 2008
Will NG announce to the market what more capapcity could be availbel at the end of the year? read more...
12 February 2008
Will NG announce to the market what more capapcity could be availbel at the end of the year? read more...
Suddenly it's "British Petroleum"
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
02 June 2010
A name not used in a very long time, but suddenly the US are quick to refer to BP by its old name of British Petroleum, hoping perhaps to distance itself from blame regarding the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. But as the US announces a criminal investigation and as BP shares suffer further should the British economy concern itself? read more...
Power Prices Ride the Crest of the Fuel Wave
A bullish fuel market fed through into the UK Power Market today with gains of over £2/MWh seen on most of the seasonal curve contracts. read more...
26 April 2010
A bullish fuel market fed through into the UK Power Market today with gains of over £2/MWh seen on most of the seasonal curve contracts. read more...
Power Prices Fall without Obama's help
While comments from President Obama on the banking industry hit the share price in most major companies, the UK power market managed to achieve losses all by itself. read more...
22 January 2010
While comments from President Obama on the banking industry hit the share price in most major companies, the UK power market managed to achieve losses all by itself. read more...
UK Gas price highest in World.
The UK gas price in Q409 is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to the UK but there is real doubt as to whether these prices levels will be maintained. read more...
11 September 2009
The UK gas price in Q409 is attracting significant volumes of LNG gas to the UK but there is real doubt as to whether these prices levels will be maintained. read more...
Are we leaving recession territory?
If we can forecast what type of recession we are in for, we can start to work out what will happen to equities, commodities & currencies –and ultimately when to jump into the market. Here we look at the facts. read more...
22 May 2009
If we can forecast what type of recession we are in for, we can start to work out what will happen to equities, commodities & currencies –and ultimately when to jump into the market. Here we look at the facts. read more...
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