Talks in the market on Friday were of the market spiking on supply worries. But trading on Monday suggests that these fears have been over-hyped. Winter 06 was immediately sold at £61.50 (around the closing price on Friday) and was quickly followed up by a trade £0.40 lower. Day ahead has consistently traded around £42 but there have been many more sellers around than on the close of Friday.

August and September in the last week or so have ticked up by £1 but interesting;y October has stayed at the same levels the spread has narrowed to £7 (Sep v Oct) and this evidence suggests that possibly the recent rise has spooked some buyers into action, possibly a little early. If as this week continues to be mild and some of the outage plant returns, then prices should fall from the £42 mark and bring August and September with them. The National Grid 2-14 day forecast suggests that there is still 8-10GW of surplus plant available whilst this plant maybe expensive to run, we are unlikely to have a NISM (Notice of Insufficient System Margin).