Market cools as the temperature momentarily drops. The real question is whether players start to use this as an excuse to load up the back end of the curve.
The market shifted down yesterday and this morning as players looked at the cooler weather and the fact that the NISM's (Notice's of Insufficient Margin) were less in demand. Many of the generators have keeping their volume back for the balacing market as this has been as high as £342 in some half hours. There is no doubt that whilst the market is being squeezed those generators able to function will be doing their best to keep the squeeze going for longer.
What is most encouraging is that the prompt has not affected the back end of the curve though if Israel and Lebanon continue then Winter 06 will start to be affected.
12 June 2007
Some players are looking carefully at margins in July and August but it does not appear to be too bad at the moment. read more...
03 July 2006
Prompt prices the key fundamental as to what will happen with the power market. If in the next three days there are no further outages and the weather subsides so air-condintioning is not causing problems then we should see the Winter 06 fall further. read more...
27 May 2005
Prompt no longer the driving force, as the curve diverges. read more...
04 March 2005
Cold snap could be the last price spike of Winter 04 read more...
17 February 2005
Prompt up- better to be long and wrong, than short and caught. read more...
What's in the Mix?
While gains may have been seen in both the power and gas markets this week – the gains were not equal causing a big shift in the generation mix read more...
24 September 2010
While gains may have been seen in both the power and gas markets this week – the gains were not equal causing a big shift in the generation mix read more...
Out with the Old, In with the New
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
31 December 2009
During the last day of trading in 2009, the UK Power curve closes down but what will the New Year hold in store? read more...
Unseasonal Temperatures help to melt prices
Middle of November but no sign of wintery temperatures. The effect was to soften the prompt power market, which also felt the pressure from weak commodity curves. The downward trend fed through the power curve. read more...
16 November 2009
Middle of November but no sign of wintery temperatures. The effect was to soften the prompt power market, which also felt the pressure from weak commodity curves. The downward trend fed through the power curve. read more...
Market forgets basic principles and panics!
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
02 October 2009
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
What's Happening in the Back-End?
The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist. read more...
19 June 2009
The back end of the curve is extremely difficult to trade. Those dipping their toe in tend to be Producers (with excessive length adjusting their risk positions) and Banks looking for some exposure. At the same time Retailers tend to be short-termist. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
Weather continues to dominate
Tight margin concerns resulted in Spot prices reaching highs for nearly two years. The cold weather conditions were the driving force though supply issues compounded the situation. read more...
10 December 2010
Tight margin concerns resulted in Spot prices reaching highs for nearly two years. The cold weather conditions were the driving force though supply issues compounded the situation. read more...
Cold snap results in single highest gain since Jul-09
Prompt contracts responded to the expected cold spell forecast for this week with the Day Ahead contract (Baseload contract for Monday delivery) on Friday gaining £2.65/MWh – the single highest gain seen since July on this contract. This bullish sentiment did not feed through to the rest of the curve though. read more...
08 November 2010
Prompt contracts responded to the expected cold spell forecast for this week with the Day Ahead contract (Baseload contract for Monday delivery) on Friday gaining £2.65/MWh – the single highest gain seen since July on this contract. This bullish sentiment did not feed through to the rest of the curve though. read more...
Gains Seen Across the Curve
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve. read more...
Market forgets basic principles and panics!
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
02 October 2009
It could be said that the market over reacted today in the prompt market with a price rally on the back of a £142 half hourly cash out price. read more...
Monthly Review - Jan 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant. read more...
Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban. read more...
Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears. read more...
The Market in April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way. read more...
Confidence Returns to Market
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13. read more...
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