Many energy analysts have stated that the forthcoming energy directive, has been demanded for some time. The government and many utilities have known that coal plants, and North sea gas are in decline. Since 1994 gas power production has fallen from 24% to 19% and coal power production has risen from 28% to 33%. This switch is normal in a ceteris paribus market but with emissions as an additional cost for coal production it is surprising that the switch has continued.

The truth is that the physical and engineering required to keep the coal stations running is no more expensive than building a new gas plant, and on current economics most players would invest in coal rather than gas. Reality therefore suggests that whilst there is still coal around and gas remains scarce, utilities will continue to pay for emissions and pass this rising cost onto the consumer. It will only become interesting when coal and gas reach parity and vie for the margin. The analysts suggest that this might be anytime between now and 2015 when the coalers economic life runs out. Do not be surprised if this date continues to slip, it has already!