March moves down  but we knew it would

25 January 2006

Powerisk stated some time ago that March traditionally gets over bid on the back of cold weather and spark spread data. Rarely does it last and this was predicted by Powerisk in does the spark ever breakdown.

March has now dropped nearly £10 in two days, despite the coldest night in London since 1996. Perhaps it is clear that when it is the coldest night in London for nearly a decade and prompt prices are trading at a couple of pounds premium to March that the product is over bid. Players have also taken their lead from gas which has declined and this has pushed power with it. Perhaps the key question is if March has fallen too much. In reality, the new level of £51.50 is more in line with Summer prices, but these in turn have remained robustly high. One would suggest that there are further opportunities for drops assuming that fundamentals remain steady. This could have a further effect on the curve which has recently been increasing on oil and emissions fear. See March graph.


Prompt  Weather 

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