
20 January 2006
March looks expensive, but the spark is keeping it high. Powerisk analyses this in further detail and suggests that there maybe opportunities to come in the near future.
Powerisk has already stated on numerous occasions that March as a trading month, is a difficult month to trade. The reason is that as a shoulder month between Winter and Summer, it does not know whether to take its lead from a potentially cold February or from a potentially mild April. Looking at previous graphs in March (04, 05, 06) we can see that its trading history has shown falls through the month of February, in 05 there was a late surge but nothing of note. Traditionally players in 04 and 05 have had mild winters, gas has perhaps not been as used through the winter as players have predicted and the bears return in February. One suspects that as traders dream of Summer holidays as milder weather starts to set in the bears become stronger. In reality much of the reason for March remaining high is as a result of spark spread traders holding the market at around £10, at this level there is no fundamental driver for trading with fair value for spark spreads around this level. March as a spark spread tends to be a bit lower than this forcing power prices to rise and gas prices to fall. Out and out gas producers see March relative to February and look to buy it up encouraging the spark traders to come back to the fore. In short March always takes longer to correct than most months, and this creates an opportunity for electricity to traders to sell March, most site weather and winter for not doing it, but history shows being long March is never a good trade.
The Rally Continues in Electricity
 
08 July 2011
Where June ended on a bearish note, July opened with a distinctly more bullish feel to it. By the 8th July, the Winter contracts had each gained around £1/MWh with Winter 11 trading at £57.70/MWh, Winter 12 at £59.60/MWh and Winter 13 at £63.45/MWh.  
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Energy Curves regain some of the Losses
 
01 July 2011
The energy markets have recovered from the 'plunging losses' seen earlier in June which dragged down fuel and power prices. Prices across the power curve all report strong week on week gains.  
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Prompt Prices at a Premium to Winter..
 
01 October 2010
The focus this week has been on the prompt markets with system constraints and gas uncertainty the main cause. Together the constraints and uncertainty have had an interesting impact on the shape of the power forward curve.  
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Gains Seen Across the Curve
 
21 December 2009
There was no sign of an early Christmas in the power market on Friday with a 'flurry' of trading resulting in gains across the power curve.  
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Energy Forward Prices continue to gain ground
 
10 June 2011
Despite market participants describing the market as stagnant and directionless, energy forward prices continue to gain ground. Winter 11 power closed the week up at £59.65/MWh while NBP Winter 11 gas finished at 72.20p/therm.  
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Downward Trend Still in Play
 
13 May 2011
Most contracts in the UK energy markets continued to lose ground this week enforcing the downward trend that has been in play since the start of the month. The Winter 11 contracts closed the week at £57.60MW/h and 68.85p/therm.  
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Winter 11 - A Slippery Slope
 
06 May 2011
While March was a month of shocks and gains, April seems to have marked the start of a downward trend in the UK power market. The WInter 11 contract is just one example.  
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The Market in April 2011
 
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way.  
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Monthly Review - Jan 2012
 
01 February 2012
Weather, oil sanctions and European debt concerns were the pushers and pullers this month as energy markets responded to competing indicators. Volatility was the only constant.  
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Weather Forecasts and Iranian Threats
 
27 January 2012
Forecast and outturn cold weather drove gas and coal prices this week which in turn had an impact on the power curve. Iran threatened to cut off crude supplies ahead of the EU's proposed July sanctions; a move that would impact EU nations as they seek to find alternative sources ahead of the import ban.  
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Warm weather weighs heavy on prices
 
06 January 2012
Unseasonably warm weather and European debt crisis fears continued to influence the markets at the start of 2012. While oil did open the year up on the back of strong economic data from both the US and China, it retraced its steps on surprise US stockpile data combined with the Euro debt fears.  
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The Market in April 2011
 
28 April 2011
In comparison to the activity seen in March – the energy markets seemed relatively sedate shedding some of the value along the way.  
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Confidence Returns to Market
 
20 December 2010
Despite a continuation of cold conditions, confidence was seen returning to the market with a stabilisation of spot prices and comfortable system margins. There was some focus on the curve with seasonal contracts all reporting some gain on the previous weeks levels apart form Summer 13.  
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February Monthly Round Up
 
25 February 2011
February was dominated by news of unrest spreading throughout the Middle East and this had a direct impact on all aspects of the UK energy market with gains seen in the UK Power and NBP Gas curves.  
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Where has the market got left to go?
 
03 September 2010
Clean spark spread prices in Winter’s 11 and 12 are trading below £5.00MWh (closing at £4.87 and £4.59 respectively). The equivalent Summer’s are not that much stronger asking some to ask is there anymore downside left at these levels.  
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Where's the certainty?
 
23 December 2009
There was a time when you could quite comfortably forecast the running order of generation plant in the UK - but 2009 has seen a dramatic turn in the stack!  
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