Back end of the curve attracts interest

11 January 2006

The bulls buy up back end of the curve, as sometimes it is difficult to forget the rises seen in 2005.

Summer 07 and Winter 06 have risen throughout most of the week. The bulls have not surprisingly bought the back end as part of position buillding at the beginning of the year. After such a bullish 2005 and with fundamental gas supplies and power decisions creating a generally more bullish market it is no great surprise that the most liquid season products are rising. Summer 07 and Winter 07 are interesting as they are effectively the decision points for the emissions markets which is now in contango and so the markets maybe trying to correct this anomaly. However, it appears that the anomaly can be corrected another way and that is the sell of 2006. The market rises in Nov 05 were unprecedented and there is no doubt that the prices seen today reflect much risk premium associated with volatility and uncertaintity, if volatility decreases which it looks more likely to do at the beginning of the market, much of this risk premia will leave and we may well see a more bearish outlook.


Carbon  Bull Market  Contango  Forward Curve 

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