The gas storage field Rough in the North Atlantic will be on outage for most of March as they repair the fire damage caused last week. This is bad news for March and good news for April, as a squeeze on March gas is likely to occur and if it is cold then this will have a major effect dragging April with it. However, assuming that the outage is only for the month, then April will see the system awash with gas. In fact if emissions fall as well in May we could see a step change in the curve downwards. With the system long gas and long emissions this could also cause a double whammy, with a switch out of coal and into gas.

Remember, there are lots of ifs and buts in all of this posturing, the key unknown is exactly when Rough will return. If it is longer than anticipated then expect a rise in April prices, if it is shorter than anticipated then expect a fall. The seasons went in opposite directions yesterday with WInter 06 rising on strong oil on the back of the Niger crisis. Summer 06 fell on the back of the potential gas length, ironic since most of the gas plant will not be on due to the spark and dark relationship.