A pause for thought

15 February 2006

The market declines seen in the previous part of week, paused momentarily yesterday, but fundamentals suggest that these levels are here to stay for a while.

The market checked its decline yesterday, with some buying in UK gas in the prompt and in the Winter 06. This is good news it shows that the market is working and the rises in the market were not overly dramatic and there will be many who will look to buy at these levels, but if they are careful and tend not to rush in then there will be further opportunities as fundamentally prices still look high, with mild weather and plantiful supply showing prompt prices at a shade over £40. This means Summer prices for the UK are looking quite pricey.

One fear which players are looking at carefully is that with the Dark spread being significantly lower than the spark, the burning of coal plant through the summer should ensue. Fundamentally this is wrong, and suggests that either coal prices are too cheap, gas prices are too expensive or emissions are too cheap and are not doing their job in persuading players to switch to carbon efficient fuels. It is fair to assume that this may well be addressed in due course. Expect the market to correct, but specifically in emissions.


Carbon  Spread 

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