Looking at previous years we have seen that the tale end of August and most of September tends to lead to bearish tendencies across the curve. Powerisk has talked about the shoulder months of March and April and September and October, but it is clear that they are developing a pattern.

March and April are tending behaving like cold Winter months, often tighter than people imagine due to demand increases which can be significant but also the odd plant going off line early for outage. September and October are highly Autumnal months demand can pick up but rarely radically. Most domestic players refuse to put their central heating on before the end of October. Most plant is back from the Summer outage ready for the Winter. Prices as a result fall as the plant margin and fuel dynamics encourage production of power.