The bearish sentiment continues

22 September 2005

Oil is reacting to the Hurricane, by the time the effects reach a gas and power market it is just huff and puff.

Power prices took their lead from prompt gas prices and long dated drops in coal and emissions. Fundamentally the market has risen over the last three months because of supply and demand. The gas has been bought for fear of Winter turning out to be cold and many players who have traditionally run a balanced position, have found with the nervousness associated with energy spikes that a long position is better to maintain. The result is that the market has discovered that people are holding their longs until the death and then selling to get balanced. This has meant that the market is in contango, but players are seeing some backwardation creap in gas and emissions and oil and as a result players are seeing both ends of the curve fall. There is no doubt that the market is falling but for how long? If Hurricane Rita is as bad as predicted then the bears will go back to their woods. But if Hurricane Rita does not do too much damage then be prepared for another selling on slaught.


Bear Market  Backwardation  Contango 

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