Prompt slips further

21 September 2005

Prompt slips but the curve resists the fall and looks high in comparison. Summer 06 is trading at the same level as November 05.

Day ahead, October November and December all fell. In fact Winter 05 fell to nearly £50 this is the lowest it has been for three months, and it was predicted by Powerisk sometime ago. As the contract is in its last week and half of trading the players are aware that in order to manage their longs they need to either sell the whole contract or break it up into its constituent months. October has fallen £4 this week (10%) as a result of huge selling pressure from prompt prices. In fact it still looks overly high if £32 in the day ahead becomes the norm then the back weeks of October must trade at over £45 to reach Octobers trading number of £38 today. This in turn is putting pressure on the other months which are seeing growing differentials, between months. It is almost incomprehensible that the market values November 05 at the same level as Summer 06, this shows the price of uncertainty for next year as opposed to the relatively safe and predictable November. The real question is has the market priced in a mild November something which has happened over the last three years. If so then expect the Summer to remain at £43.00 if not then watch it fall.  


Bear Market 

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