Curve falls further on gas and fundamentals

27 September 2005

Falling market looks to continue with all fundamentals responding to the break up of Winter 05 in both the gas and power markets and the resultant sell off.

Gas prices fell but the power price still looks as though it has some level to go. Powerisk has consistently pointed out that spread differentials have meant that there is value in the curve. The prompt is trading at £31 and January is trading at £54.50 on baseload this £25 differential is unlikely in remain in outturn, and unless the cold winters come true it is unlikely that January will have the price spikes predicted. More importantly almost all generators would not contract forward at the moment because the levels of spark spread are highest at the day-ahead stage at £14. This is perhaps an area where the EU commisioner may look at, in her report on the competitiveness of the market and the effectiveness of the EU electricty directive. Certainly those who have waited to contract annual volume later than a 1st October start will be benefiting from the recent falls.


EU  Generation  Bear Market  Forward Curve  Prompt 

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