The Art of Arbitrage

05 October 2005

As the market looks to react to fundamentals trading holes appear and the brave trader will exploit these holes ruthlessly. The trick is being able to see the wood from the trees.

The market followed almost the same pattern as the previous two days with the prompt up on supply fears caused by the French and the decrease on temperature. The curve also fell off with oil, gas and emissions all coming off too. Perhaps interestingly we saw in the market January and February bid up but Q1 06 sold. This is in effect an arbitrage move to sell March as an individual month. The lucky seller managed to sell March at £49.38 based on the arbitrage figures of £56.65 for Jan £55.50 for Feb and £53.50 for Q1 06. For any independent observer this is a very high figure for March, but perhaps it is the spark spread traders who are influencing it most with the Spread currently at £8.60 (gas price 58.65p/therm). On this basis if emissions stay where they are then gas will not be used in the market place, the clean spark spread number is approximately £2.17 barely enough to justify generation at all. Perhaps most telling is that April gas is at 48.9p/therm. Perhaps the spark spread traders would do better just to sell March gas and wait to get into the spread at a later date.


Carbon  Gas  Spread 

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