Prompt sets stall for the future

04 October 2005

"Now is the winter of our discontent". Shakespeare summed up the traders feelings for Winter 2005.

Gas fell along with oil, but the proposed strike by the French spooked the prompt to trade to £39/MWh. November and December moved down on recent overbidding. Q1 06 remained bullish with small moves up on the back of prompt and supply concerns for the Winter 05. The market has been jittery and players are aware that any fundamental shift upwards will cause some panic buying moving the market swiftly. Many large consumers are on short term day ahead week ahead flexible products and this has meant that the volumes trading in the prompt are increasing. The curve further out pushed further into backwardation with all periods trading down, but with Summer 07 and 08 trading at nearly £1 discount to 06. It is clear that if this Winter turns out to be milder, and perhaps there is more of a swing to gas and supply stands up easily to meet demand that the bears will re-surface, pushing long term prices down to sub £45 in the winter and sub £35 in the Summer. However, if there is a scare in some way then expect prices to jump and to stay high as players scramble to get long and longer. The jitteryness of the market will be reflected in price spikes at the day ahead stage and also at the next three months.


Backwardation  Prompt 

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