Traditionally, October and November are seen as bearish months, as players reassess their winter positions with new fundamental data generally a milder winter than had originally been guessed (this is has been the case for the last four years). The over zealous buyers see that their longs in mild weather and falling gas and emissions prices suggests that the market needs to sell, and they would prefer not to be long and wrong. The selling is only to correct a long position and tends not to see real shorts come into the market.

The key fundamental driver in this traditional sell off is falling prompt prices, this year this has not happened with Q1 staying up. The reason for this is that there is so much uncertainty in these three months that traders would prefer to manage their length at the point of delivery. Many customers have bet on this opting for short term settled contracts, this strategy will only work, if Winter is mild, your risk manager is tame, and if the market spikes that the trader trades and does not believe that the market could fall as well.