NGC released their much awaited report on supply for Winter 05. They predict that peak demand will be around 61.5GW. They have 72.6GW of true capacity (this includes the French Interconnector) and these figures do not include any embedded generation. Perhaps interestingly, the demand volume is down from their last statement in May by 1GW, however, supply is also marginally down. There is no doubt that they feel the big worry is if there is enough gas to supply the predicted 23GW of CCGT's expected to generate through the Winter. NGC expect coal to be the dominant generating fuel source, and this will explain why emissions prices rose to close €24/tonne. NGC also stated that if we were to have a 1 in 50 cold winter this would increase demand by 2GW (not including the effect of demand side bidders) this is very manageable within the current setup.

In theory this result should make players re-evaluate positions to such an extent that the jitteryness of the market will cool down. This NGC suggesting that the lights are unlikely to go out, the effect of a cold snap is marginal. Of course if gas supplies start to get tight this means that we start to lose 23GW and the lights will go out! But storage facilities are pretty full, and gas prices have been falling suggesting that the demand for gas is on the decline.