Curve hits a pattern

10 October 2005

Winters fall as Summers stay still. Traders see the scaremongering and look at the raw facts. Buy the rumour; sell the fact.

Traders have seen Carbon prices rise, and yet with mild weather and the reduction in demand the predicted cold Winter and scaremongering from some has meant that the market has to take its lead from fact. If ever the adage of buy the rumour sell the fact was correct, then this is it. The market is responding to the fact that the market has been over bid during the winter due to supply fears. Warm weather and more plant coming back has seen prompt prices fall, gas has also fallen and the Winters are under some pressure to fall as a result. Perhaps surprisingly the market has not managed to budge the Summers which are all trading above £40/MWh this is quite interesting if you look at where the prompt in October is trading at circa £32/MWh. Perhaps if carbon prices start to fall and the switch from coal to gas materialises this is an area where the market could fall significantly.


Carbon  Prompt  Weather 

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